Longterm outlook for lng shipping is bright but vessel. Meanwhile, the lng market has become much more liquid as the. A challenging supplydemand outlook for lng producers. Some rough math shows that the global lng market readily absorbed around 30. We expect our australian lng export price indicator to finish 2017 at around aud8gj. In our latest global gas market outlook, we predict that natural gas will represent 23%up from 22% in 2016of the global energy mix by 2030. Petroleum economist, iea world energy outlook 2018. A history of this series from 2000 is shown to the left. The rapidly expanding global liquefied natural gas market. Global lng bunkering market is expected to increase usd 24684. The lng shipping market tightened throughout the third quarter, and rates increased sharply in.
In contrast, smaller lng projects including flng have gained traction towards an fid. Lng carriers market growth, trends, and forecasts 2020. Smallscale lng market growth, trends, and forecast. Oct 10, 2017 finally, even europe, is generally seen as the global lng trades market of last resort and has witnessed limited lng demand of late, also increased imports by 15% to 23. Our assorted publications cover every conceivable aspect of this industry, including technology, providers, economic and macro environmental aspects of the industry. Smallscale lng market growth, trends, and forecast 2020. Marine money 2016 4 lack of arbitrage, decreasing voyage days and distance has given sufficient length in the spot market decreasing rates.
We now forecast that our lng export price indicator will reach aud10. With increasing pressure on largescale lng plants to showcase returns to investors, the operating companies are increasingly backing smallscale lng initiatives. Coming from a ships agency perspective, we aim to capture a holistic view of the lng industrys upstream to downstream supply chain by highlighting the movements of key players in various locations. While global dynamics have been somewhat more favourable of late, prices remain well below previous peaks and new supply from competitors will place further pressure on the market.
An expected shortage of lng vessels looms as the shipping market for liquefied natural gas is expected to strengthen in the next few years. It is my pleasure to welcome you to our global lng report. Lng market outlook up to 2018 ken koyama, ieej, november 8th, 2017 lng supplies continues to be abundant up to 2018 and beyond due mainly to substantial increase in supplies from new projects million tonnes 263 6 263 6 275. Some rough math shows that the global lng market readily absorbed around 30 mt of additional supply in 2017. Lng at the crossroads identifying key drivers and questions deloitte. Global lng trends, outlook and business prospects 2017 to.
The lng market outlook presentation can be downloaded after free registration. Lng market characteristics 15 lng demand 17 lng supply 18 other characteristics of the market 22 3 regional lng demand. Only one project globally has been sanctioned so far in 2017, the 3. Lng market trends and their implications global lng hub.
During the quarter ended june 30, 2017, there was continued momentum in the startup of new lng liquefaction. The market have rebalanced and is now in early phase of recovery with higher charter rates and utilization as well as increased interest for longer term contracts lngc market have very strong longterm fundamentals due to increased demand for lng, emissions. The csis energy and national security program is pleased to host dr. The outlook for lng in the us market bauer college of. How latin america and the caribbean can benefit from the us shale boom 3 however, the nearterm outlook for global lng markets, and us lng exports in particular, is less favorable than previous estimates suggested. May 03, 2018 the world lng market forecast 20182022 is presented using sectors, detailed analysis, and commentary on eight distinct regions with a tenyear market view historic data covering the period 202017 and forecast data for 20182022. Lng outlook to 2020 report summary the market looks increasingly oversupplied in the near term with 62 mt of additional supplies coming online between 2016 to 2018.
Dec 23, 2016 global lng trends, outlook and business prospects 2017 to 2025 planned lng projects, supplydemand, investments, technologies, trade, prices and competition research and markets. The asia pacific market accounted for two thirds of world lng imports in 2003, or 83 million tonnes. Global lng trends, outlook and business prospects 2017 to 2025 planned lng projects, supplydemand, investments, technologies, trade, prices and competition. Natural gas is what we refer to as a triplea resource, one that is abundant, available, and affordable. Global lng bunkering market outlook, trend and opportunity. The lng market should finally get exposure to chinese growth china has until recently been nonexistent in the lng market hinas share of global lng imports reached 5% in 2011 and should be set for rapid growth going forward, reaching 12% by 2015 chinese regas capacity increases 27% p. Energy information administration the effects of changes to marine fuel sulfur limits in 2020 on energy markets 3. Jan 18, 2016 the csis energy and national security program is pleased to host dr. Pdf authors examine current state of global natural gas market and analyze trends in infrastructure. The effects of changes to marine fuel sulfur limits in. Still, global supply growth will outpace demand until 2023.
Mar 28, 2018 published 03282018 by lng market analysis kaleem asghar. The next several years will be difficult for producers of liquefied natural gas lng. The lng shipping market tightened throughout the third quarter, and rates increased sharply in october. The reports, books, and subscriptions listed under research and markets lng category allow you to stay uptodate with the latest trends in the liquefied natural gas industry. In the aeo2019 reference case projections, the fuel mix of oceangoing marine vessel bunkering in the united. Fereidun fesharaki, chairman and founder of fge, for a discussion of the global natural gas markets. Lng carriers market growth, trends, and forecast 2020 2025 the market is segmented by containment type membrane type and moss type, propulsion type steam turbines, dualfuel diesel enginetrifuel diesel enginedfdetfde, slowspeed diesel ssd, mtype electronically controlled gas injection megi, xdftwostroke engine, steam reheat and stage and geography north america. Woodmackenzie presentation by franck harris, head of global lng consulting during the giignl general assembly in brussels october 09, 2017. The lng industry has long regarded the asian markets of japan, south korea, taiwan, china and india as high growth importing markets, willing to sign long term contracts with price terms linked to crude oil prices. Energy insights the lng market has shown solid growth of 6% p. Globally, growing demand for sslng from remote areas, especially for power generation, is one of the major factors driving the global small scale lng market. And thirdly he asks whether lng developers can adopt a.
In addition to the possibility to export by pipeline, producers can export the. Production capacity will expand significantly, but demand growth, even if relatively strongour base scenario calls for annual growth of 5% to 6% from 2015 to 2025will not be sufficient to absorb all the new supply. The market have rebalanced and is now in early phase of recovery with higher charter rates and utilization as well as increased interest for longer term contracts lngc market have very strong longterm fundamentals due to increased demand for lng, emissions focus and commoditization of lng resulting in more trading. With oil prices back on the rise and the aud set to depreciate a little further, australian lng export prices will be higher in 2018. On this occasion the focus is the lng industry and he. Traditionally, natural gas is imported via pipeline. Bp, in its latest energy outlook in january, also pointed to strong lng supply growth in the period 20172021, while norways statoil said in its own outlook that the critical question was whether new gas supplies would be developed in time to meet future forecast demand, or if the current gas surplus would turn into a deficit and a tight market. Supply costs, economic impacts and emissions outlook 20192039, study no 182. Finally, the future outlook for these vessels is promising due to emerging lng importers like india and philippines will use this option to import lng shortly 2016 2017. Lng accounts for a rising 12% of all gas demand, increasingly. Together, the us, middle east, and china will account for 70% of incremental supply of 800 bcma. Nsr00271lng market outlook fact sheet dd shell global.
May 08, 2016 finally, the future outlook for these vessels is promising due to emerging lng importers like india and philippines will use this option to import lng shortly 2016 2017. C18lng3703 how to foster lng markets in europe 746 brief summary of the conclusions according to the lng outlook carried out in this report, the importance of lng is expected to grow in the future and remains a cornerstone of eu security of supply that contributes to gas market competition. European production decline outlook europe natural gas production bcmy 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1 9 0 9 7 2. The outlook for natural gas and lng in china in the war against air pollution chikako ishiguro, senior analyst, osaka gas co. A variety of information and data was used in the compilation of this report. Lng market outlook report for 2018 to 2030 coming from a ships agency perspective, we aim to capture a holistic view of the lng industrys upstream to downstream supply chain by highlighting the movements of key players in various locations. Finally, even europe, is generally seen as the global lng trades market of last resort and has witnessed limited lng demand of late, also increased imports by 15% to 23.
The world lng market forecast 20182022 is presented using sectors, detailed analysis, and commentary on eight distinct regions with a tenyear market view historic data covering the period 202017 and forecast data for 20182022. To understand the dynamics of, and prospects for, the global lng market, it is helpful to examine the current backdrop for natural gas. Sep 22, 2017 in contrast, smaller lng projects including flng have gained traction towards an fid. Lng carriers market growth, trends, and forecasts 2020 2025. The smallscale lng market is expected to grow at a cagr of greater than 21. Asia continues to dominate global lng trade, but the european lng market has evolved significantly in the past decade and seems destined for sustained growth and diversification over the next. Liquefied natural gas lng market to witness significant. Dec 07, 2017 woodmackenzie presentation by franck harris, head of global lng consulting during the giignl general assembly in brussels october 09, 2017.
The effects of changes to marine fuel sulfur limits in 2020. The world gas market in 2030 development scenarios. Demand for liquefied natural gas lng in 2016 kept pace with a planned strong increase in. The outlook for liquefied natural gas lng deteriorated on monday, as the coronavirus continued to impact deliveries to china following a week in which the countrys largest importer declared. Floating lng regasification is used to meet rising natural gas demand in smaller markets today in energy u. The outlook for natural gas and lng in china in the war. Jul 09, 2017 the global lng liquefied natural gas market is expanding by 46% per year, compared to around 12% for overall gas consumption. Published 03282018 by lng market analysis kaleem asghar. Global lng longterm outlook 2017 report wood mackenzie. The rebound in asian lng demand in 2010, following the postfinancial crisis year of 2009, reaffirmed this paradigm with.
274 1264 344 1117 1458 159 1213 620 982 1430 1184 1062 632 1249 1170 710 91 557 1450 1009 649 829 476 358 1274 781 354 1374 740 1064 193 1455 1197 112 417